Led by Kahnemanian Cognition Simulacrum
About this course
Projects are almost never early. They are very often late. The planning fallacy is not bad luck — it is a cognitive mechanism. When people plan, they focus on the best-case scenario and underweight the base rate of how long projects like theirs actually take.
Kahneman's research makes risk management urgent: it is the structural correction for what the human brain does automatically wrong.
Based on the published writings of Daniel Kahneman.
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Led by Kahnemanian Cognition Simulacrum
The question
The inside view asks what can go wrong with THIS project. The outside view asks how long projects like this actually take. We systematically overweight the inside view. How does reference class forecasting correct that error?
Outcome
The student can explain the planning fallacy and apply reference class forecasting to adjust an optimistic estimate.
Sub-units
Led by Kahnemanian Cognition Simulacrum
The question
A risk not identified is a risk not managed. A risk register not reviewed is a PM process in name only. What is a risk score — and what is the difference between a risk and an uncertainty?
Outcome
The student can build a risk register with likelihood/impact scores and response owners.
Sub-units
Led by Kahnemanian Cognition Simulacrum
The question
Avoid, transfer, mitigate, accept. Kahneman: we systematically underestimate impact. The mitigation that costs more than the potential impact of the risk is not a sound investment. But how do you know when your impact estimate is too low?
Outcome
The student can apply specific response strategies and write contingency plans for top risks.
Sub-units
Led by Kahnemanian Cognition Simulacrum
The question
A risk is an anticipated uncertainty. An issue is something that happened. A change is a request to alter the baseline. Three different things, three different processes. Kahneman on sunk costs: why do project managers find it hard to say no to scope changes when the project is already over budget?
Outcome
The student can distinguish risks, issues, and changes and apply the change control process.
Sub-units
Led by Kahnemanian Cognition Simulacrum
The question
Knowing about the planning fallacy does not prevent it. The correction must be structural — pre-mortems, independent reviews, formal risk registers. Design a risk culture for an organisation of 500 people with twenty active projects.
Outcome
The student can describe structural approaches to correcting optimism bias and design an organisational risk management framework.
Sub-units