BUS 3700 · Project Management: Risk, Estimation, and the Planning Fallacy

Led by Kahnemanian Cognition Simulacrum

The planning fallacy, optimism bias, risk identification, and change control — why projects are always late and what cognitive science says about fixing it.

1. Module 1

   The Planning Fallacy and Why Projects Are Always Late

   Led by Kahnemanian Cognition Simulacrum

   The question

   The inside view asks what can go wrong with THIS project. The outside view asks how long projects like this actually take. We systematically overweight the inside view. How does reference class forecasting correct that error?

   Outcome

   The student can explain the planning fallacy and apply reference class forecasting to adjust an optimistic estimate.

   Sub-units

   1. ○ 1.1 Reference Class Forecasting Open this unit → ✓ ↻
   Begin the course → Print certificate of completion
2. Module 2

   Risk Identification and the Risk Register

   Led by Kahnemanian Cognition Simulacrum

   The question

   A risk not identified is a risk not managed. A risk register not reviewed is a PM process in name only. What is a risk score — and what is the difference between a risk and an uncertainty?

   Outcome

   The student can build a risk register with likelihood/impact scores and response owners.

   Sub-units

   1. ○ 2.1 Build a Risk Register Open this unit → ✓ ↻
   Open this module → Print certificate of completion
3. Module 3

   Risk Response Strategies

   Led by Kahnemanian Cognition Simulacrum

   The question

   Avoid, transfer, mitigate, accept. Kahneman: we systematically underestimate impact. The mitigation that costs more than the potential impact of the risk is not a sound investment. But how do you know when your impact estimate is too low?

   Outcome

   The student can apply specific response strategies and write contingency plans for top risks.

   Sub-units

   1. ○ 3.1 Response Strategies Open this unit → ✓ ↻
   Open this module → Print certificate of completion
4. Module 4

   Change Management and Issue Control

   Led by Kahnemanian Cognition Simulacrum

   The question

   A risk is an anticipated uncertainty. An issue is something that happened. A change is a request to alter the baseline. Three different things, three different processes. Kahneman on sunk costs: why do project managers find it hard to say no to scope changes when the project is already over budget?

   Outcome

   The student can distinguish risks, issues, and changes and apply the change control process.

   Sub-units

   1. ○ 4.1 The Change Request Open this unit → ✓ ↻
   Open this module → Print certificate of completion
5. Module 5

   Building a Risk Culture

   Led by Kahnemanian Cognition Simulacrum

   The question

   Knowing about the planning fallacy does not prevent it. The correction must be structural — pre-mortems, independent reviews, formal risk registers. Design a risk culture for an organisation of 500 people with twenty active projects.

   Outcome

   The student can describe structural approaches to correcting optimism bias and design an organisational risk management framework.

   Sub-units

   1. ○ 5.1 Final Essay: Risk Culture Open this unit → ✓ ↻
   Open this module → Print certificate of completion