Led by Jerzy Neyman Simulacrum
About this course
Neyman invented the confidence interval in 1937. It does not give the probability that the true parameter is in any particular interval. It gives the probability that the procedure, repeated many times, will produce intervals containing the true parameter. This distinction is subtle, consequential, and widely misunderstood.
Led by Jerzy Neyman Simulacrum.
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Led by Jerzy Neyman Simulacrum
The question
A survey of 10,000 online volunteers finds 78% support stricter gun control. "Overwhelming evidence." Identify every methodological problem — and describe the study design that would produce valid inference.
Outcome
The student can distinguish study types, identify sampling bias, and explain why randomness enables inference.
Sub-units
Led by Jerzy Neyman Simulacrum
The question
Population mean 72, SD 15, sample size 100. P(x̄ > 74) ≠ P(X > 74). Why — and what does the central limit theorem guarantee about the shape of the sampling distribution?
Outcome
The student can describe the SDSM, apply the CLT, and compute probabilities involving sample means.
Sub-units
Led by Jerzy Neyman Simulacrum
The question
True proportion p = 0.40, sample of 200, p̂ = 0.51. How many standard errors from the true proportion? What does this suggest about the sample — and what conditions must hold for the normal approximation to apply?
Outcome
The student can describe the SDSP, verify conditions for inference, and compute probabilities.
Sub-units
Led by Jerzy Neyman Simulacrum
The question
Mean 72, SD 10, n = 25. What is the 95% CI? The 99% CI? A student says "there is a 95% probability the true mean is in this interval." Is that correct?
Outcome
The student can construct and correctly interpret confidence intervals for means and proportions.
Sub-units
Led by Jerzy Neyman Simulacrum
The question
A journalist reports: "Scientists are 95% sure the drug reduces blood pressure by between 2.3 and 8.1 mmHg." Is this correct? If not, what does 95% confidence actually mean?
Outcome
The student can explain the frequentist confidence interval correctly and identify common misinterpretations.
Sub-units